These projections were made using the same statistical data for our projects as those used to generate all the previous projections. Hence, even if the estimates inherent in those numbers are not quite accurate this is about as close to a common basis for a strategy comparison as we can get.

On the same risk basis, our current strategy is decidedly inferior to the new one. In fact, we apparently stand more than an even chance of losing considerable profits in 10-11 years time if we do nothing.

Let me quickly put the previous slide up again to emphasize this key point.