This set of projections assumes, as an example, that we implement the new (15,1,1) strategy immediately and that the numbers (key project parameters) I provided remain good estimates for new projects. (Of course, if we did implement changes it would take time to plan and put into effect.)

These projections, which assume an immediate change, give us an idea of the effect of the new strategy and provide a basis for comparison with our current strategy.

Hence, if for the sake of example, we did indeed implement this new strategy straightaway then we would still run a 10% risk of losing money in about 10 years time. However, even at that level of risk, profits would recover within a couple of years. On the brighter side, there is a 4 in 5 chance that we would instead experience profits of no less than 25-45 MM at that time. Overall, by the looks of things we could reach the 100 MM per year level in anywhere from 15 to 30 years or so and have a much better overall chance of remaining at around 50 MM per year than we do with our current strategy.

The next slide allows us to compare the same risk projections assuming we keep our present strategy.