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Risk analysis example 3:

Commodities & Technology

International Corporation

Company profile

This example concerns a large fictitious company called Commodities & Technology International with serious fundamental problems. It originally began in the 30's as a supplier of raw materials to the steel industry. Over the course of years it grew to become one of the largest suppliers in the eastern United States. However, that business has long since declined, mainly as a result of international competition and although still an important part of the company CTIC it is no longer a market leader in that area. Over the years CTIC has acquired and sold numerous industries ranging from metals processing to health care products. Some of the acquisitions made in the 70's were very successful and turned CTIC into a global entity.

The research laboratories began as a center for providing support to its early industries. Generally, the R&D activities were not initially well funded and innovation was not expected or requested, although there were in fact several major technologies created there. Due to the diversity of CTIC's businesses the engineers and scientists are from scattered disciplines and pursue a variety of quite different projects on fairly low budgets.

Currently, the industry, although still huge by manufacturing standards (3bn in sales) is in serious financial trouble due to a persistent erosion of profits in all sectors and there have been many rounds of cutbacks and layoffs in all divisions and departments. None of this has worked to improve the underlying situation and the current objectives of the company are unclear.

CTIC is now struggling to understand its own industry and how best to make it profitable and have hired many different consultants. The examination of the research activities is just one part of a continuing company wide appraisal.








Presentation

Each slide is on a separate page and can be accessed from the index. Each page includes brief explanatory notes.

Slide index - CTIC

1. Research review - title slide

2. Current research activities

3. Successes - text

4. Key project parameters - table of values

5. Risk based profit projections - 17 projects - 2 graphs - current strategy vs. risk strategy analysis optimum design

6. Projections assuming immediate transition to a 15,1,1 strategy - graph

7. Projections - current 4,6,7 strategy maintained - graph

8. New research risk strategy - text

9. Conclusion & options - text

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